Iran Intelligence Briefing — 9 Mar 2026, 13:15 UTC

Based on 181 events from the previous 24 hours. AI-generated from open-source reporting; check the sources before relying on it.

IRAN — SITUATION REPORT

09 March 2026 13:14 ZULU

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Mojtaba Khamenei has been officially named the new Supreme Leader of Iran, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026. This succession occurs amidst an ongoing, widespread US-Israeli military campaign targeting Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, and a retaliatory wave of Iranian missile and drone attacks across the region.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS (past 24 hours)

Mojtaba Khamenei was officially announced as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026, by the Assembly of Experts, following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei. Open-source reporting indicates celebrations and pledges of allegiance to the new leader across Iran.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) and US forces have conducted extensive airstrikes across Iran, targeting IRGC command headquarters and military sites in Tehran, including Mehrabad airport where 16 Iranian military transport planes were reportedly destroyed. Strikes were also reported in Isfahan, Yazd missile site, and southern Iran, hitting all vessels at Bandar e Lengeh port, including the Qasem Soleimani warship, and Bahonar Pier in Bandar Abbas.
Iran launched a new barrage of liquid- and solid-fuel missiles and drones, including Khorramshahr, Fattah, and Kheibar, following the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership. These attacks targeted Gulf nations, with multiple explosions reported in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. An Iranian drone attack near Manama, Bahrain, resulted in injuries, and Bahrain's Bapco declared force majeure after its refinery caught fire. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting the Shaybah oil field.
NATO air and missile defense forces neutralized an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey, and a second Iranian ballistic missile believed to be aimed at Incirlik Air Base was also intercepted. A US SM-3 missile likely intercepted another Iranian ballistic missile.
The US Department of State has ordered non-emergency US government employees and family members to depart Consulate General Adana in Turkey due to safety risks.

THREAT ASSESSMENT

Critical: The conflict remains at a critical level, with direct military engagements between Iran and a US-Israeli combined force, and Iranian retaliatory strikes impacting regional stability and energy markets.
Key Risk Factors: Escalation is highly probable given the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner, and Israel's stated intent to target any successor. Continued Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf nations and US assets pose a significant threat to regional security, infrastructure, and international shipping. Attacks on oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz closure threat continue to drive oil price spikes and global economic uncertainty. The assassination of Ali Khamenei and the ongoing conflict raise concerns about heightened terrorist threats from state-sponsored and non-state actors.

DIPLOMATIC STATUS

Diplomatic relations with the US and Israel are non-existent, characterized by direct military conflict. Gulf nations, including Bahrain, have condemned Iranian attacks. Russia has expressed unwavering support for Iran, with President Putin sending congratulations to the new Supreme Leader.

OUTLOOK (24–72 hours)

Continued US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military and leadership infrastructure are highly probable. Iran is assessed to continue retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, US bases, and regional allies, particularly targeting energy infrastructure and shipping. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is expected to deliver a public address, which will likely signal Iran's immediate strategic direction. Increased volatility in global oil markets is anticipated. The US Department of State has advised US citizens to shelter in place or depart Iran, indicating an expectation of continued high-intensity conflict.

More Iran briefings

All briefings · Open the live map