🇺🇦 I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: this coming winter will be the most difficult one for…
Armed Conflict · · Ukraine
🇺🇦 I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: this coming winter will be the most difficult one for Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war. I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but several factors point to an extremely challenging period ahead.
Ukraine is receiving less support from the United States, while air defence missiles remain in short supply. Russia has also increased its use of jet-powered attack drones, which fly faster and are more difficult to intercept than conventional propeller-driven drones. Combined with relentless attacks on energy infrastructure, power stations, railway networks and essential services, this creates a dangerous situation as temperatures drop.
Europe needs to prepare now by increasing humanitarian assistance and strengthening Ukraine’s air defences wherever possible. But we must also be realistic: European countries have their own limitations, and many of our air defence stockpiles are already depleted.
At the same time, this winter could be the first in which Russia feels the consequences of the war more severely than in previous years.
We must also prepare for the possibility of another large influx of Ukrainian refugees into Europe. Ukrainians have shown extraordinary resilience. People have adapted to blackouts, disrupted heating, damaged infrastructure and constant attacks. But resilience has its limits.
At some point, if electricity and heating become too unreliable, water supplies are disrupted and temperatures fall sharply, remaining in major cities could become unsustainable for many families. People can adapt to a great deal, but only up to a point. When basic living conditions collapse, leaving may become the only realistic option.
That is why Europe must prepare for both scenarios: helping Ukraine endure the winter and preparing to support those who may be forced to flee. This means planning shelter, humanitarian assistance and emergency services before the crisis reaches its peak.
And for those who oppose supporting Ukraine, remember that less support does not mean the war simply ends. It mean more destruction, more occupied territory and another major wave of refugees heading towards Europe. This would create an even bigger humanitarian and migration crisis, with consequences that will be far from easy for European countries to manage.
Source: @GeoInsider
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