MORNING WATCH — OCTOBER 10
Armed Conflict · · Washington, United States
MORNING WATCH — OCTOBER 10
Few things to watch this morning:
🇺🇸🇷🇺 The U.S. has made a real exception for Russian diesel.
Yesterday Trump announced a fuel deal with Putin. The interesting part is that the Treasury then actually moved.
OFAC issued General License 135, allowing certain transactions involving the sale, delivery, unloading and import of Russian-origin diesel until April 7, 2027.
So this isn’t just Trump talking about putting more Russian fuel on the market. There is now a legal exemption behind it.
It’s still a narrow one. The U.S. hasn’t lifted its Russia sanctions in general, and this doesn’t suddenly reopen the whole Russian energy sector.
Trump says Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and eventually another million.
Diesel prices in the U.S. have been under serious pressure while the Iran war has tightened the refined-products market.
That doesn’t prove the Iran crisis directly caused this decision, but it helps explain why Washington is suddenly willing to make an exception it probably wouldn’t have considered a few months ago.
For Ukraine, the problem is obvious.
Kyiv is attacking Russian refineries to make fuel production harder and reduce Russian revenues. At the same time, Washington is now allowing Russian diesel back onto the market because it needs more supply.
Zelensky has already attacked the move, saying Russian oil revenues ultimately help finance the war.
If this stays confined to diesel, it may end up being a very specific response to a bad fuel market.
If Washington starts issuing similar exemptions for other Russian energy products, then we’re looking at a much bigger change.
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🇪🇹🇪🇷 Ethiopian troops are back in Adigrat.
Three residents told Reuters this morning that Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias had entered the city, with soldiers and military vehicles seen patrolling.
That’s significant because Adigrat was one of the places where Eritrean troops were reported earlier this week.
ACLED says those Eritrean units pulled back after drone strikes attributed to the Ethiopian military.
If that account is right, Ethiopia may have managed to push Eritrean forces away from the city without, so far, turning this into a large ground offensive across the border.
But there’s still quite a lot we don’t know.
We couldn’t confirm that the Ethiopian army controls the whole city. We also don’t know where the Eritrean troops went, how many were involved, or whether they simply moved back toward the border and regrouped.
What we can say is that Ethiopian forces are back inside Adigrat and Eritrean troops are reported to have withdrawn from positions around it.
And Adigrat is only around 30 km from Eritrea.
If Ethiopian troops stop around the city and restore their positions, this could still remain a limited confrontation.
If they keep moving north, the risk changes quickly.
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A few other things are worth keeping an eye on:
🇺🇦 Ukraine
A Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia killed at least 12 people, including three children, according to Ukrainian authorities. Five guided bombs reportedly hit different parts of the city.
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🇾🇪 Yemen / Saudi Arabia
Saudi strikes and Houthi attacks are continuing, but there’s no new territorial shift this morning on the scale of the Bab el-Mandeb fighting or the attacks on Riyadh airport.
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🇮🇷 Hormuz
Still tense, but no new development that really changes yesterday’s picture.
The main thing is still whether Iran starts enforcing restrictions more aggressively around the Omani side of the strait.
Source: @GeoInsider
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