MORNING WATCH — OCTOBER 5
Armed Conflict · · Saudi Arabia
MORNING WATCH — OCTOBER 5
Three things to watch this morning:
🇾🇪🇸🇦 The Saudi-backed offensive in Yemen has begun and government forces are back at Bab el-Mandeb.
The internationally recognised government formally launched the offensive on Sunday. Since then, its forces have pushed quickly down the western coast under heavy Saudi air cover and taken key positions around Dhubab.
Yemen’s Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani told Reuters that government forces now have “effective control” of Bab el-Mandeb. He also said they captured Dhubab airstrip and isolated the remaining Houthi forces in the area.
I’d still be careful with the phrase “control of Bab el-Mandeb.”
The government advance is real, and Dhubab is clearly the center of the current operation. But fighting is still going on near the strait, and at least one military position remains contested.
Saudi Arabia says it has hit hundreds of targets across Yemen to support the ground campaign.
And the shape of the offensive tells us quite a lot about Riyadh’s priorities.
Instead of immediately trying to drive deep toward Sanaa, the first major push is much more focused:
the coast, Dhubab and Bab el-Mandeb. That makes sense.
If Saudi-backed forces can hold that corridor, they erase much of the strategic value of the Houthi coastal gains from September and make it much harder for the group to physically dominate the chokepoint.
But taking the coastline does not suddenly make the Red Sea safe.
The Houthis can still threaten ships with missiles and drones launched from much farther inland or from other parts of the coast. So I wouldn’t talk about Bab el-Mandeb being “reopened” yet.
The better indicator will be what shipping companies and insurers actually do.
And while the Houthis are losing ground on the coast, they appear to be making gains somewhere else.
Around Taiz. Five government military sources told Reuters that Houthi forces advanced through the mountains, pushed into al-Turbah and took sections of the road linking Taiz with Aden.
Several government sources now describe Taiz as effectively surrounded, although another disputes that the road has been completely cut.
That makes this a much more complicated fight than a straightforward Saudi-backed breakthrough.
The Houthis may be doing exactly what you would expect them to do: avoid fighting exposed government columns on the coast under heavy Saudi airpower, and instead shift pressure into the mountains around Taiz, where the terrain is far more favorable to them.
If they can force government forces to divert troops away from Dhubab, they may be able to offset some of their coastal losses without actually retaking the coastline.
So the big question over the next 24–48 hours is pretty simple:
Are we watching the Houthi front begin to crack or are both sides trading territory, with the government gaining the coast while the Houthis tighten the pressure around Taiz?
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A few other things are worth keeping an eye on:
🇪🇹 Tigray
Mekelle has fallen, but the war clearly hasn’t stopped.
Heavy fighting and artillery were reported north-west of the city, while a humanitarian bulletin said airstrikes killed at least 17 people in Adwa and Sheraro.
Federal forces are continuing north, toward the Eritrean border.
Losing Mekelle was a major blow for the TPLF. Direct Ethiopian–Eritrean military contact would open a very different phase of the crisis.
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🇩🇪🇷🇺 Germany / Russia
Germany’s BND chief Martin Jaeger told parliament that the threat of Russian operations against German targets is “real and imminent,” and warned that Moscow could test NATO with limited military action in the Baltics.
There is no indication of an imminent large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory at this moment.
So this is a serious intelligence warning for now.
Source: @GeoInsider
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