Ukraine will face another very difficult winter, and the pressure from Russia is not going to simply…
Armed Conflict · · war, you
Ukraine will face another very difficult winter, and the pressure from Russia is not going to simply disappear:
What we are seeing in recent months is also a much greater impact on the civilian sector, particularly when it comes to food, retail, logistics and other infrastructure connected to everyday life.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission documented 32 attacks in August on facilities belonging to major Ukrainian food, retail and logistics companies, compared with 11 in July almost three times as many in just one month. Fozzy Group, Epicentr, Nova Poshta, Rozetka, Aurora and Varus were among the companies affected.
The objective is to make cities such as Kyiv increasingly difficult to live in by putting pressure on the infrastructure people depend on every day energy, food, retail, logistics and essential services.
And I want to know: where are all the people and media outlets who for years kept telling us that Russia was going to run out of missiles, run out of drones, run out of troops and so on?
Where are we now?
The reality is simple: things don't just finish, you adapt.
If you have fewer missiles, you change how and where you use them. If you have fewer aircraft available, you rotate them differently. If you have fewer troops, you change the scale of operations.
A shortage does not automatically mean a capability has disappeared.
Ukraine has adapted enormously throughout this war, and it deserves a huge amount of credit for that. But Russia managed to adapt too. That is the reality we need to analyse.
And the consequences are increasingly reaching beyond Ukraine.
Romania has seen a major increase in drone-related incidents near its border. Official Romanian figures show 83 attacks near the border and 66 fighter scrambles already in 2026, compared with 28 and 21 respectively in all of 2025.Romania has seen a major increase in drone-related incidents near its border. Official Romanian figures show 83 attacks near the border and 66 fighter scrambles already in 2026, compared with 28 and 21 respectively in all of 2025.
Moldova has also seen a dramatic increase in unauthorized overflights: 44 incidents were recorded by September 24, compared with 17 during all of 2025.
And Poland is seeing more alerts and military activity along its border with Ukraine. There has not been a new confirmed Polish airspace intrusion in the latest incidents, but people living close to the border are increasingly hearing alerts and dealing with the consequences of a war happening right next to them.
It would therefore be foolish to assume there cannot be further incidents affecting Polish airspace in the coming weeks or months.
This winter will be extremely difficult for Ukraine.
But it will not be easy for Russia either.
So I'll repeat this for the thousandth time:
If you want to analyse this war, analyse the reality in front of you not the reality you wish existed.
Stop saying something has run out simply because the numbers are lower.
In war, you adapt.
And both sides have been adapting since February 2022.
For the rest, Ukraine will be in extreme need of humanitarian aid this winter, especially when it comes to energy, heating, food, medical supplies and basic essentials, my recommendation is always the same: if you want to donate, donate to an organisation you personally trust and have checked to be reliable.
And again, stop looking at this war only through the version of reality we want to see. If you only focus on the information that confirms what you already believe, you will miss what is actually happening on the ground.
War is not static. Capabilities change, tactics change, priorities change, and both sides adapt. Something can be going badly in one area while another area is improving. A country can be under enormous pressure and still adapt successfully. An army can suffer major losses and still retain significant capabilities.
Analyse the war as it is, not as you wish it was.
Source: @GeoInsider
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