We need to understand something about what is happening around Ukraine and the actions we are seeing across…
Armed Conflict · · Ukraine
We need to understand something about what is happening around Ukraine and the actions we are seeing across the region:
From attacks on ships in the exclusive economic zones of countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, to drones entering Romanian and Moldovan airspace, to the incidents we have seen around Poland.
Every time you test a threshold, you are also testing the response.
If the response is weak, or if the cost appears manageable, you learn something. You learn how quickly the other side reacts, what it is willing to tolerate, where its limits are and what consequences you may face.
Then you can test another threshold.
And another.
That is exactly what makes this so difficult to counter.
The same applies to sabotage and other forms of hybrid activity. Sometimes you are dealing with low-level operatives, intermediaries or people operating through third countries. Establishing who ultimately ordered something, who facilitated it and where the information or money came from can be extremely difficult.
Governments may know much more privately than they can publicly prove. And sometimes the response is deliberately kept quiet.
This is not conventional warfare. It is not necessarily about waking up tomorrow and suddenly seeing a major confrontation.
That is why we talk about hybrid warfare.
It is about constantly applying pressure, testing boundaries, creating uncertainty and looking for weaknesses while remaining below the threshold of open conflict.
But there is another part of this that people need to understand: division.
You have one side saying, "We are responsible for what is happening because we support Ukraine and send weapons."
On the other side, you have people saying, "Our governments are incapable of doing anything against Russia. Why aren't we responding more strongly?"
That division is valuable to anyone trying to weaken Western unity.
And it doesn't only happen through physical incidents. Disinformation and divisive content are pushed at us constantly. Social-media algorithms are extremely good at amplifying whatever makes people angry, afraid or hostile toward each other.
So my recommendation to everyone who follows me is simple: talk to your friends, educate yourself, educate others and learn how these information systems work.
Don't automatically believe everything you see. Don't allow someone else to decide what you should be angry about. And don't assume that every incident exists in isolation.
At the same time, restraint should not automatically be interpreted as weakness. Governments have to consider what they know, what they can prove and what consequences each possible response could create.
The objective is not to start a war tomorrow.
It can be much more gradual: test the response, learn the limits, create political divisions, increase uncertainty and make every future decision more difficult.
That is why all of these actions have a deeper strategic purpose.
We cannot know where the next threshold will be, or where this ultimately ends. But we should understand that these incidents are likely to continue, and the next one may test a different threshold.
Individually, some of these incidents may appear relatively small.
Together, they create a pattern.
And right now, Russia is managing to exploit this space between peace and open conflict very, very effectively.
Stay safe, stay sharp, and stay informed and when it all becomes too much, take a break.
Source: @GeoInsider
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